India's Demographic Crossroads: Securing an Ageing Population in a Low-Fertility Future
With its fertility rate now below the replacement level, India faces the dual challenge of supporting a rapidly growing elderly population with a weak social security architecture and a largely informal economy.
What is the core demographic shift India is experiencing?
India has officially entered a new demographic phase defined by low fertility. The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) data shows the country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population (Source: The Hindu, citing SRS data). This figure is also below the current global average of 2.2, marking a historic turning point for a nation long associated with high population growth.
This national average, however, conceals vast sub-national disparities. The demographic transition is not uniform, creating what economist Amarendu Nandy calls multiple “demographic economies” within one nation. Urban India's TFR has dropped to 1.5, while rural fertility hovers around the replacement mark. The most pronounced divide is geographical, with the SRS data showing states like Delhi (TFR of 1.2), Kerala (1.3), Tamil Nadu (1.3), and West Bengal (1.3) exhibiting fertility rates lower than many developed nations like the United States (1.6) and Japan (1.3).
In stark contrast, states like Bihar (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), and Rajasthan (2.3) still have fertility rates well above the replacement level. This divergence means that while southern and metropolitan India are ageing rapidly, a large cohort of young people will continue to enter the workforce from the northern and central states for at least the next two decades.
Why is this transition particularly challenging for India?
A central challenge, as highlighted by economists, is that India is ageing at a much lower level of income compared to countries that have previously undergone this transition. Historically, nations in Western Europe and Japan experienced demographic ageing after achieving high levels of industrialisation and building robust, tax-funded welfare states. For instance, Japan's public debt surged past 200% of its GDP as it financed its ageing society, but it did so from a position of high per-capita income (Source: The Hindu). India, by contrast, is entering this phase with a per-capita income of around $2,800 as of 2024 and a weaker institutional foundation.
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