The Kigali Amendment at 10: India's Challenge to Meet Cooling Demand and Climate Goals

The Main Story

On October 15, 2016, nations convened in Kigali, Rwanda, to adopt an amendment to the Montreal Protocol. The objective was to regulate hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the chemicals industry had adopted to resolve the ozone crisis. A decade later, as the planet experiences record temperatures, the amendment's mission—to provide cooling without accelerating global warming—has acquired new urgency, particularly for a nation like India.

### Why was the Kigali Amendment necessary?

The Montreal Protocol of 1987 is often cited for its effectiveness in phasing out nearly 99% of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), allowing the Earth's ozone layer to begin recovering. The primary replacements for ODS in refrigeration and air-conditioning were HFCs. While safe for the ozone layer, HFCs were identified as powerful greenhouse gases. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), many HFCs have a warming impact hundreds or thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide on a per-molecule basis. As global demand for cooling surged, the atmospheric concentration of HFCs began to rise, threatening to counteract gains made under other climate agreements. The Kigali Amendment brought HFCs under the Montreal Protocol's regulatory framework, leveraging its proven mechanisms to manage this threat. A UNEP Scientific Assessment Panel report estimates that full implementation of the amendment could prevent 0.3°C to 0.5°C of global warming by 2100.

### What are India's specific commitments and timeline?

As a developing nation with high ambient temperatures, India negotiated a later compliance schedule under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. India is placed in Group 2 of developing countries, with a later start than developed nations (which began reductions in 2019) and other large developing economies like China (which has a 2045 target). After ratifying the amendment in August 2021, India committed to a four-step HFC phase-down plan. The country's production and consumption of HFCs must be frozen at a baseline level in 2028. This is followed by a 10% reduction from the baseline by 2032, a 20% reduction by 2037, and a final target of an 85% reduction by 2047. This schedule provides a transition period for Indian industry. The government's National Strategy for Phasedown of HFCs aims to work with industry to proactively adopt non-HFC alternatives, but equipment purchased before the 2028 freeze may lock in energy consumption patterns for over a decade.